Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is an MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies, played on 23 June at Coors Field in Denver, with the Red Sox winning 5–2 behind pitcher Sunny Gray, who struck out 11 batters in seven innings[1]. In prediction markets, a YES share means you profit if the market resolves to the stated outcome (here, “Boston Red Sox”), while a NO share profits if it does not; this market currently shows 100% YES, implying the game has already been completed and the Red Sox are confirmed winners.

Historically, similar 100% YES probabilities in sports markets appear only after official results are published, as seen when the Rockies stunned the Red Sox 3–2 in a prior game with four consecutive ninth-inning hits[2]; such outcomes reset market expectations and eliminate uncertainty, which explains the current certainty. Traders should watch for official final statistics from MLB.com or ESPN, which confirm the result and trigger settlement[4][6], and monitor any rare postponement notices, though none are expected given the game has already concluded.

Recent coverage confirms the Red Sox’s bounce-back win and Gray’s dominant performance, reinforcing the 100% YES stance[1]. With the settlement window ending 1 July 2026, the market will resolve once the governing body’s final stats are archived, leaving no room for doubt about the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.