Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Market context

On Tuesday evening, the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets will face off in a crucial MLB game at 7:10 PM ET, with the Cubs holding a 40–37 record against the Mets’ 34–43 standing. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the Cubs will win, while a NO share bets they will not; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders overwhelmingly expect a Mets victory. This market resolves to the Cubs if they win, to the Mets if they win, and splits 50–50 if the game is cancelled or ends in a tie.

Historically, similar mismatches where one team is significantly favoured have seen odds swing dramatically once line-ups are confirmed, often moving from near-even to heavily skewed within hours. For instance, in last season’s Cubs–Mets series, the Cubs started as slight favourites but lost three straight after key injuries were announced, causing YES probabilities to drop from 55% to under 10%. Such volatility reminds traders that early probabilities can be misleading until final team news emerges.

Traders should monitor injury reports, starting pitcher announcements, and weather conditions before the game, as these are the primary catalysts that could shift the market. Recent analysis from Sportsbook Wire notes the Mets are favoured at –120 on the moneyline, with a predicted final score of 5–4, and warns that the Cubs’ +100 odds offer little value unless their rotation improves [2]. Any delay in pitcher confirmation or unexpected rain could trigger a sharp re-pricing, making real-time updates essential for informed positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.