Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 7:10 PM ET, the Chicago Cubs face the New York Mets in a Major League Baseball game at Citi Field. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the specified outcome will occur—here, that the Cubs win—while a NO share means you believe it will not. This market currently shows a 100% implied probability for a Cubs victory, suggesting the event is viewed as certain by traders, though such certainty is rare in live sports where any single play can alter the result.

Historically, 100% probabilities in sports markets have appeared only when games were effectively decided before they began, such as in cases of severe team injuries or when one side fielded a vastly superior roster. Comparable MLB instances show that even dominant teams like the Cubs (43–37) can lose if key pitchers falter or if the Mets (34–45) exploit weak defensive moments. The Cubs have already swept the Mets in the season series, including a 15–11 win at City Field, which may reinforce the market’s confidence, but past dominance does not guarantee future results.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, particularly whether Freddy Peralta (9–4, 3.30 ERA) starts for the Mets, as his strong record against the Cubs could shift momentum. Weather updates for New York on 25 June are also critical, as rain delays could postpone the game and keep the market open. According to MLB’s official game preview, Matthew Boyd is returning from the injury list, which may affect the Mets’ pitching depth. These factors, though minor, remain essential dependencies for any trader assessing whether the 100% probability holds.

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Methodology

We track Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.