Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 June at 7:40PM ET, the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox face off in a decisive MLB game where the winner is the sole resolution condition. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the named outcome—here, a Guardians win—will occur, while a NO share bets it will not. The current crowd-implied probability of 38% for YES suggests the market sees the White Sox as slightly more likely to win, despite the Guardians being listed as marginal moneyline favourites by major bookmakers[4].

Historically, tight MLB matchups between these teams often defy pre-game odds; for instance, the White Sox recently secured a dramatic 6-5 walk-off victory over the Guardians in a game that saw them overcome a late deficit[1]. Such volatility is common when both squads hover near identical win percentages, with the Guardians at 41-37 and the White Sox at 39-37, making this contest a genuine toss-up where a single error can swing the result[2]. Traders should note that the Guardians have struggled recently, winning just four of their last ten games despite a strong overall record[5].

Key catalysts for this market include the official final statistics released by MLB, which serve as the primary resolution source, and any potential postponements that would delay settlement until the game is completed. While no specific injury announcements have dominated headlines today, traders must monitor the starting lineups confirmed shortly before the 7:40PM ET start, as a late pitcher change could alter the run total, currently set at 7.5[4]. The market remains open until the game concludes, ensuring that even a postponed match does not prematurely close the position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.