Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June, the Philadelphia Phillies will travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers in a regular-season MLB fixture. In prediction-market terms, a YES share represents a Phillies victory, whilst a NO share represents a Brewers win. The current crowd-implied probability of 40% for YES reflects traders' assessment that the Brewers are slight favourites, though the matchup remains competitive. Settlement occurs after the final out, with the market remaining open through 20 June should postponement occur.

The Phillies enter 2026 as a National League contender with recent postseason experience, whilst the Brewers have established themselves as a consistent division competitor. Historical head-to-head records between these franchises show relatively balanced outcomes over recent seasons, though home-field advantage in Milwaukee carries measurable weight in June matchups. The 40% probability suggests traders view this as a near-toss-up with marginal Brewers lean—a reasonable reflection given neither team typically dominates the other decisively.

Key variables affecting the outcome include starting pitcher assignments, which typically drive 3–5 percentage-point swings in win probability, and recent offensive form entering mid-June. Weather conditions at American Family Field can influence play, particularly wind direction affecting fly-ball trajectories. Injury updates to either roster in the days before 13 June will likely shift the probability noticeably. Traders should monitor official MLB injury reports and team announcements through 12 June, as late-notice roster changes frequently trigger repricing in single-game markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.