Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| GAIS O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| GAIS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-1.5) | 0% |
| GAIS (-1.5) | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna (-2.5) | 0% |
| GAIS (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| GAIS O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| GAIS O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| GAIS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| GAIS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| GAIS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the Allsvenskan football match between IF Brommapojkarna and GAIS, scheduled for 17:00 UTC on 6 July 2026 at Grimsta IP in Stockholm. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market condition is met, while a NO share pays out if it is not; here, the crowd-implied probability of "More Markets" is currently 0%, suggesting traders believe the condition will not occur. This specific market hinges on whether the match generates additional betting opportunities beyond the standard outcomes, a setup that requires careful reading of the game’s dynamics.
Historical head-to-head data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. The two teams have met 12 times previously, with GAIS winning five, Brommapojkarna four, and three draws, including a recent 1-1 stalemate on 24 April 2026 where both sides scored[2]. In their last meeting on 6 July 2026, the match ended 1-1, and odds analysts note this fixture often delivers both goals and corners, yet the market still assigns no chance to "More Markets" [3]. This contrast suggests traders may be discounting secondary betting angles despite the game’s competitive nature.
Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding lineups, referee assignments, and any late schedule changes that could alter market liquidity. With both teams tied on 15 points and GAIS sitting fifth, the stakes are high, which typically increases the likelihood of dynamic play[4]. While no recent news source explicitly confirms changes to betting markets for this fixture, the consistent pattern of goal-scoring and corner activity in past matches [3] means traders must watch for any official updates from the Allsvenskan or team channels before the settlement window closes on 6 July 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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