Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Game Spread +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Bejlek and Marie Bouzkova in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sara Bejlek' if…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova on Prediction Market UK
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