Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros are scheduled to play a regular-season MLB game at Houston, and this market pays out on the *winner* of that game: a **YES** share resolves to the listed team if it wins, while a **NO** outcome is the alternative side that wins if the other club takes the game. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the make-up game is completed; if it is cancelled with no make-up, or ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50.

The current crowd-implied 0% YES price is far below the live market context for the game. ESPN’s game page lists Houston as the stronger side on the moneyline and gives the Astros a 76.3% win probability, while other pre-game listings show Houston around -132 to -136, with Cleveland priced as the underdog.[1][3][5][7] That gap matters for prediction markets: a very low YES price usually reflects either a thin traded book or a mispricing, not a meaningful claim that the labelled team cannot win.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward baseball ones: the confirmed starting pitchers, late scratches, weather, and any schedule changes that could trigger a postponement or make-up game. The most relevant updates tend to arrive close to first pitch, and live odds pages and boxscore feeds will usually move first if line-up or injury news changes the outlook.[1][7][8] Because this market resolves only on the official final result, the practical focus is on whether the game is completed as scheduled and which team is credited with the win.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.