Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a WNBA match played on 24 June 2026 at 7:30PM ET between the Phoenix Mercury and the Indiana Fever, where the final score including overtime determines the winner. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s condition is met (here, that the Phoenix Mercury win), while a NO share pays out if it is not met (the Indiana Fever win). This specific market resolves to “Phoenix Mercury” if they win, “Indiana Fever” if they win, and 50–50 if the game is cancelled without a make-up.

Historically, markets with 100% crowd-implied probability for a team often reflect overwhelming pre-game odds or a decisive outcome already confirmed. In this case, the Phoenix Mercury won the game 111–109, confirming the YES outcome and validating the market’s initial pricing[5][7]. Comparable cases in WNBA betting show that when a team is heavily favoured and wins by a narrow margin, the market resolves cleanly without ambiguity, as seen here where Caitlin Clark’s injury did not alter the final result[7].

Traders should monitor official WNBA announcements regarding player injuries, game postponements, or cancellations, as these directly affect settlement. The most recent postgame media availability from Indiana Fever head coach Stephanie White confirms Clark left due to a back injury, a key dependency that could influence future matchups but did not change this game’s outcome[2][7]. With the settlement window ending on 24 June 2026 at 23:30:00Z, all conditions for resolution have been met, and no further catalysts remain pending.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.