Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre waterway between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive chokepoints. Roughly one-third of all seaborne traded oil passes through it annually. Military vessels from numerous nations have historically transited the strait to assert freedom of navigation, respond to regional tensions, or conduct routine operations. A YES resolution requires credible confirmation that a specified country's warship has passed through between now and 30 June 2026. A NO share pays out if no such transit occurs; a YES share pays out if one does. The current 5% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that such a transit is unlikely within the next eighteen months.

Historical precedent suggests warship transits through the strait occur regularly but unevenly. The United States Navy has conducted dozens of freedom-of-navigation operations there since 2012, whilst European navies—including British and French vessels—have periodically deployed through the waterway as part of broader Middle Eastern operations. However, the frequency and visibility of such transits depend heavily on geopolitical conditions. Periods of elevated Iran–US tension have typically coincided with increased Western naval activity, whilst calmer intervals see fewer publicised operations.

Traders should monitor announcements from regional naval commands, particularly the US Fifth Fleet, and track any escalation in Iran–Gulf state tensions. Recent reports from January 2025 indicate continued US naval presence in the region, though no major policy shifts have been announced. Scheduled international naval exercises, sanctions enforcement operations, and any sudden diplomatic incidents could rapidly alter the likelihood of a confirmed transit within the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.