Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak

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Market context

The Libema Open, held annually in the Netherlands, will host a first-round match between Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime and Polish qualifier Kamil Majchrzak on 12 June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that Auger-Aliassime advances; a NO share bets on Majchrzak's victory. The current 0% implied probability for YES suggests traders expect Majchrzak to win or view the match outcome as highly uncertain. This market settles on the winner after the match concludes, with a 50-50 split if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days, or abandoned mid-play.

Auger-Aliassime, ranked in the top 20 globally, has competed consistently on grass courts in recent seasons, though his record on this surface remains mixed compared to clay specialists. Majchrzak, a qualifier, typically ranks outside the top 100 and has limited grass-court experience at ATP level. Historical grass-court upsets do occur—particularly when seeding gaps are wide—but Auger-Aliassime's ranking advantage and tournament experience usually favour higher-seeded players in early rounds. The 0% probability reflects either extreme confidence in an upset or potential liquidity constraints in the market.

Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any withdrawal announcements through the ATP Tour website. Weather conditions in the Netherlands during early June can affect grass-court play, potentially delaying matches. Injury reports on either player in the week preceding 12 June would materially shift expectations. The settlement window closes 19 June, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before resolution becomes fixed.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.