Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva

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Market context

Roland Garros 2026 will feature a second-round clash between Ukrainian left-hander Marta Kostyuk and Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva, scheduled for 4 June at 9:00 AM Eastern Time. A YES share represents a bet on Kostyuk advancing; a NO share bets on Andreeva progressing. The current crowd-implied probability of 26% for Kostyuk reflects strong backing for Andreeva, the younger player, though both competitors have demonstrated clay-court capability at the professional level.

Andreeva's trajectory has been notably steep—she reached the Australian Open semi-final in January 2024 at age 16, then claimed a WTA title at Strasbourg in May 2024 whilst still a teenager. Kostyuk, now 23, has compiled a more gradual rise, with her best Grand Slam result a French Open quarter-final in 2023. Head-to-head records between rising juniors and established mid-tier professionals at Roland Garros frequently favour the teenager when seeding and momentum align, though surface preference and recent match fitness matter considerably. The 26% probability suggests traders view Kostyuk as a clear underdog despite her greater experience.

Key variables include both players' first-round results and any injury reports released in the week preceding the match. Andreeva's performance at the Italian Open or other warm-up events in May will signal her clay-court form heading into Paris. Kostyuk's recent ranking position and whether she enters the tournament seeded will influence draw expectations. Weather conditions on 4 June—particularly wind strength, which affects left-handed players differently—could shift match dynamics. The settlement window closes 11 June at 13:00 UTC, allowing seven days for completion; any postponement beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.