Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market asks whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States at any point before 30 June 2026. A YES share pays out if he resigns, is removed through impeachment and conviction, dies in office, or is otherwise permanently separated from the presidency before that date. A NO share pays out if he remains in office continuously through the settlement window. The 1% probability currently priced in reflects the base rate of presidential departure: no sitting US President has resigned since Richard Nixon in 1974, and removal via impeachment conviction has never occurred in American history.

Trump's first term (2017–2021) ended through electoral defeat rather than resignation or removal, despite two impeachment votes in the House. The 25th Amendment—which allows temporary removal of a president deemed unfit—has never been invoked for a sitting president. Historical precedent suggests that even serious political crises, scandals, or health events have not triggered presidential exit in the modern era. The only comparable recent case is Nixon's resignation under threat of certain impeachment conviction, a threshold requiring both House passage and two-thirds Senate supermajority.

Traders monitoring this market should track health-related developments, given Trump's age (he will be 80 by June 2026), and any formal impeachment proceedings initiated in Congress. Announcement of resignation would trigger immediate YES resolution regardless of implementation date. Constitutional scholars and political analysts have noted that the threshold for removal remains extraordinarily high: conviction requires 67 Senate votes, a supermajority rarely achieved on partisan matters. Current Senate composition and Trump's standing within the Republican Party would be critical variables in any removal scenario.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.