Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share wins if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not reach the target range, likely because historical data shows July highs in Beijing typically hover around 32–35°C, rarely exceeding 40°C unless extreme heatwaves occur[3][5].

Historical cases frame this probability: Beijing’s hottest day reached 42.1°C on 5 July 2010, and in 2023, July temperatures peaked at 40°C amid high humidity[1][5]. However, such extremes are rare; daily highs in July usually stay near 31°C (88°F), rarely falling below 26°C or exceeding 36°C[3]. The 0% probability may reflect confidence that 2026 will follow typical patterns rather than record-breaking anomalies, as national averages in recent years have risen only modestly, with July 2023 averaging 23.2°C nationally[6][8].

Traders should monitor official heatwave announcements from China’s National Climate Center and local weather bulletins, as sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure or humidity can spike temperatures unexpectedly. Recent news from June 2023 noted Beijing bracing for blistering heatwaves, with temperatures soaring above 41°C, underscoring how quickly conditions can change[4]. While no specific 2026 forecast is yet available, watching for early-season heat alerts or monsoon delays will be critical, as these dependencies directly influence whether the airport station records a temperature within the target range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.