Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. In a prediction market, traders buy YES or NO shares on whether that temperature will land in a specific bracket—say, 28–30°C. If the settlement data confirms the temperature fell within that range, YES shareholders receive their payout; if not, NO shareholders do. The current 0% probability on this particular outcome suggests traders believe that specific temperature band is extremely unlikely, though the market does not yet specify which range is being priced.

Beijing's June weather typically sits in the warm-to-hot band, with historical daily highs averaging 28–32°C during early summer. The city's climate is shaped by the East Asian monsoon transition, which can produce variable conditions; some years see cooler, wetter spells whilst others bring sustained heat. Capital International Airport, the official measurement station, sits on the city's northeastern edge and records conditions representative of the broader metropolitan area. Past Junes have seen peaks ranging from 25°C on cooler days to 35°C or higher during heat waves, providing a wide historical envelope against which traders can calibrate expectations.

The primary variable affecting June 2026 temperatures will be the strength and timing of the early monsoon onset. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal forecasts by late April, which traders should monitor for any indication of above- or below-normal heat. Additionally, any significant atmospheric patterns—such as high-pressure systems stalling over northern China or tropical cyclone activity affecting moisture transport—could shift conditions materially. Real-time weather data from Wunderground will be the definitive settlement source, making historical accuracy of that platform's Beijing airport records relevant to market confidence.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.