Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the day's peak temperature lands within a specific bracket—for instance, if the market asks "Will the high exceed 35°C?" then YES holders profit if it does, whilst NO holders profit if it stays at or below that threshold. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, which archives hourly readings from the airport's official meteorological station.

Guangzhou's June climate is consistently warm and humid, with average highs around 32–33°C during early summer. Historical records show daily maxima rarely dip below 30°C in this period, and readings above 36°C occur in roughly one-third of June days across a typical decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or scepticism about extreme heat; comparative analysis of past Junes at this station reveals that outcomes in the 33–35°C band occur most frequently, making mid-range forecasts more defensible than tail scenarios.

The South China monsoon season intensifies through June, bringing cloud cover and occasional rainfall that can suppress afternoon peaks. Traders should monitor late-May weather patterns and any tropical systems developing in the western Pacific, as these influence Guangzhou's atmospheric conditions weeks in advance. The China Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks; the June 2026 forecast, typically released in late May, will clarify whether conditions favour above or below-normal temperatures for the region.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.