Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the actual temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance for YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range, likely because it is set unusually high given typical June conditions.

Historical data frames this probability clearly: long-term averages show daytime maximums around 30°C in June, with high heat and humidity, though recent years have seen spikes up to 34.6°C during the hottest days so far in 2026[1][8]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures, yet even with this warming trend, temperatures rarely exceed 35°C in the city[4][6]. This context explains why the market assigns near-zero probability to a YES outcome unless the target range is set below 34°C.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract for the finalised “Absolute Daily Max” once published, as the market cannot resolve until this data is confirmed[7]. Recent news highlights that Hong Kong is already experiencing its year’s highest temperature at 33.7°C, with warnings of abnormally high heat continuing through summer[3][6]. Any sudden tropical storm passage, which affects about 1.4 days in June on average, could also suppress temperatures, making it a key catalyst to watch alongside official forecasts[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.