Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that figure. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs; a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, you are selecting a specific temperature band—say, 32–33°C or 34–35°C—and your YES share settles at full value only if the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" for that date falls within your chosen range. The resolution hinges entirely on data published by the Hong Kong Observatory's Daily Extract, measured to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical data shows daily maxima in early June typically cluster between 31 and 34°C, with occasional excursions to 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no consensus on any single range, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in a particular outcome. June sits at the threshold of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when humidity rises sharply but extreme heat remains less common than in July and August.

The key variable is whether a pre-monsoon heat event occurs in early June 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological agencies from May onwards. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 4 June, giving traders until the Observatory publishes its final daily extract for that date. No resolution can occur before official data is released, which typically happens within days of the observation date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.