Highest temperature in London on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual temperature lands within a specific bracket—say, 22–24°C—whilst a NO share pays out if it lands elsewhere. Traders are essentially wagering on which temperature band will contain that day's peak reading, as measured by Weather Underground's historical database for the airport's official weather station.

London's June weather typically ranges between 15°C and 25°C, though peaks above 26°C occur roughly once every five years during the month. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders expect the market's threshold—likely the highest bracket—to be unlikely, reflecting baseline seasonal patterns rather than any forecast of exceptional heat. Historical June records at City Airport show variability; the station recorded 28.1°C in June 2022 and 26.3°C in June 2018, indicating that whilst warm days are plausible, sustained heat waves remain the exception rather than the rule for early summer in London.

The Met Office's seasonal outlook and any issued heat-health alerts in the weeks preceding 12 June will shape trader expectations. Long-range forecasts become more reliable from late May onwards; traders should monitor whether any Atlantic ridge of high pressure is forecast to establish over the British Isles during that period. The settlement window closes at noon on the day itself, meaning the final reading will be locked once morning observations are complete, leaving no room for afternoon temperature surprises to alter the outcome.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.