Highest temperature in London on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual peak temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays if it falls outside that range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which records hourly observations throughout the day. Traders are essentially wagering on which temperature band will contain the day's maximum reading in degrees Celsius.

London's June weather typically ranges between 15°C and 22°C, though peaks above 25°C occur roughly once every three years during the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests no traders currently favour any single temperature bracket, which often reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence that all outcomes are equally unlikely. Historical June data from City Airport shows considerable variability: the station recorded 28.3°C on 30 June 2022, but only 17.1°C on 4 June 2015. This spread indicates why early-season June forecasts carry wide confidence intervals.

The key dependency for this market is the Met Office's medium-range forecast, typically reliable 7–10 days before the event. High-pressure systems moving across the UK in early June can drive temperatures sharply upward, whilst Atlantic low-pressure systems keep them suppressed. Traders should monitor synoptic charts from mid-May onwards, as jet-stream positioning in late spring often determines whether continental warm air reaches southern England or maritime influences dominate. Wunderground's historical archive will be the sole arbiter once the settlement window closes at midday on 4 June.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.