Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market means you believe the peak temperature will land within a specific bracket (for instance, 75–80°F); a NO share means it will fall outside that range. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Wunderground, making the outcome verifiable and independent of interpretation.

New York City's June weather typically peaks between 75°F and 85°F, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 90s. The National Weather Service's 30-year climate normals for early June at LaGuardia show a mean high of 77°F, though individual days routinely deviate by 10–15 degrees. The 100% crowd probability assigned to this market reflects certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded—a logical certainty rather than a forecast of any particular range. Historical volatility in early-summer New York conditions means the actual outcome could span a wide band; traders should examine past June 12th records and broader seasonal patterns to calibrate expectations against the available temperature brackets.

The primary dependency is the Atlantic weather pattern in early June 2026. Tropical systems, high-pressure systems tracking up the eastern seaboard, and jet-stream positioning all influence whether the day breaks warm or remains temperate. The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; monitoring their outlooks from late May onwards will provide the clearest signal of whether anomalous heat or cooler conditions are likely. No scheduled events or announcements directly affect temperature; the outcome is purely meteorological.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.