Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak air temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches your chosen temperature range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to the YES outcome for the implied range, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside that bracket.

Historical June highs at LaGuardia typically hover between 72°F and 83°F, with the climate normal for 22 June sitting at 83°F and the record reaching 98°F in 2012[7]. Recent data from 20 June 2026 shows a high of 72°F, slightly below the historic average of 82.6°F for that date[10], while June 2026 forecasts from AccuWeather project daily highs ranging from 75°F to 88°F across the month[8]. This context frames the current 0% probability as a reflection of traders expecting temperatures to land in a different range, likely 72–73°F, which Polymarket’s frontrunner outcome now holds at 97% confidence[1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which confirm final highs once the following day’s first observation is published[7]. No specific weather announcements are expected, but the resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s published data for KLGA, which becomes locked after 23 June’s first data point appears[4]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 22 June 2026, the market’s outcome hinges on whether the day’s peak aligns with the 72–73°F bracket that now dominates collective trader sentiment[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.