Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the specific condition you selected, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying traders are confident the temperature will fall outside the range tied to that share.

Historical patterns and recent model guidance suggest mid-June highs in NYC typically climb from 76°F to 83°F, with early-June averages near 79°F. Recent National Weather Service forecasts for 24 June point to a peak near 82–85°F, with the 82–83°F range already commanding 99% of the market’s implied probability. This aligns with the 0% YES probability, as the market expects the temperature to land squarely in that frontrunner band rather than the alternative range.

Traders should monitor daily National Weather Service climatological reports and real-time updates from Weather Underground, the official resolution source. Any sudden shifts in model guidance—such as a heatwave pushing temperatures above 85°F—could alter the odds, though current consensus remains firm. There are no scheduled announcements or dependencies beyond the standard publication of the day’s final temperature data, which typically appears within an hour after the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.