Highest temperature in Paris on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its peak temperature for the day, a single real-world data point that determines whether a YES or NO share settles. A YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within a specific range defined by the market; a NO share pays out if it does not. In this instance, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-total confidence that the temperature will not land in the favoured bracket, despite the market’s open resolution window ending in mid-2026.

Historical context frames this probability sharply: France has already endured its hottest day ever on 23 June 2026, reaching 44.3°C, and early July 2026 is forecast to bring another dangerous heatwave with Paris potentially hitting 35–38°C, while southern regions may exceed 40°C [2][7]. Given that July’s average high in Paris is 28.4°C but recent extremes have shattered records, the 0% YES probability likely reflects a belief that the temperature will exceed the market’s upper threshold rather than fall below it [6][8].

Traders should monitor Meteo France’s red heatwave alerts and daily forecasts for the first week of July, as these schedules dictate the intensity and duration of the incoming dome [4]. A recent forecast confirms the heatwave will persist for 7–10 days, with tropical nights staying above 25°C and daytime highs possibly reaching 42°C in the hottest spots [2]. No new announcements are required beyond these routine meteorological updates, but any shift in the forecast’s timing or severity could alter the implied probability before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.