Highest temperature in Paris on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the target threshold, though this is a forward-looking bet on a future weather event.

Historical data frames how to interpret this low probability. Paris typically experiences average July highs between 22°C and 28°C, with daily extremes ranging from 20°C to 43°C. The highest monthly July temperature since 1991 was 43°C in 2019, and heatwaves in Paris often persist for several days once temperatures exceed 38°C. While recent June 2026 saw record-breaking heat across Europe with Paris hitting nearly 41°C, the current 0% probability implies traders expect a return to more typical, cooler July conditions rather than another extreme spike.

Traders should monitor the immediate forecast for a return to extreme heat, as a recent report from The Local France states there is a "strong probability" that extreme heat will return from 6 July onwards. This dependency on short-term meteorological shifts is the primary catalyst; if the red heat wave alert issued by Meteo France for 54 departments extends into early July, the probability could shift rapidly. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the Paris-Le Bourget station, so any official updates from Meteo France regarding persistent high temperatures will be the critical factor to watch before the 12:00 UTC settlement window on 6 July 2026.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.