Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range the trader selected, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. This market currently shows a 0% probability for YES, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not reach the highest bin offered, likely because historical data and forecasts suggest a more moderate peak.

Historical patterns frame how to interpret this low probability. June at KSFO typically sees highs rising from 68°F to 71°F, rarely exceeding 80°F, with cloud cover decreasing rapidly as solar energy increases [2]. Recent data confirms this trend; the airport recorded its coldest first half of summer since 1965, with an average maximum of just 67.6°F through mid-July [7]. Current National Weather Service guidance points to a high near 66–69°F for this specific date, aligning with the market’s tight clustering on lower bins [1].

Traders should monitor daily meteorological updates and any sudden shifts in ensemble models, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviations. The settlement relies on Wunderground data, which updates continuously, so real-time observations like the current 66°F reading at 2 PM EDT are critical [5]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for today, the rapid decrease in overcast skies and the gradual rise in shortwave solar energy during June mean that clear, sunny intervals could push temperatures slightly higher, though likely not enough to breach the highest range [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.