Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded on 6 July 2026 at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target threshold, likely because July in São Paulo is typically mild compared to summer peaks.

Historical data frames this low probability clearly: July in São Paulo usually sees daily highs around 27°C (81°F), rarely exceeding 32°C (89°F), with the city’s hottest recorded day reaching 38.5°C in November, not July[3][8]. Even during global heat spikes, such as July 2024 being the warmest July on record globally, Death Valley hit 42.5°C while São Paulo remained temperate[1][6]. This seasonal pattern explains why the market assigns near-zero odds to a high-temperature outcome, as July is São Paulo’s coolest month, not its hottest.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts for the airport station and any sudden shifts in regional wind patterns, such as the arrival of cold fronts from the south, which are common in early July. While no specific announcement is scheduled, the National Institute of Meteorology in Brazil typically releases weekly climate bulletins that could signal temperature anomalies[2]. Given the settlement window ends on 6 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the final Wunderground reading will be the sole determinant, making real-time forecast updates the only meaningful catalyst to watch before the market closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.