Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market asks traders to predict which bracket will contain that single daily maximum, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out if you've selected the correct range; a NO share pays if any other range proves correct. The settlement source is historical weather data from Weather Underground, making this a straightforward factual resolution tied to a specific monitoring station.

Seoul's early-to-mid June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and the onset of the East Asian monsoon season. Historical data from Incheon shows June 12 averages around 22–24°C, though the daily maximum typically reaches 26–28°C under fair conditions. Anomalies do occur: in 2020, the date recorded 29.2°C; in 2015, only 18.1°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the range options or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a high-conviction event. June temperatures in Seoul remain relatively predictable compared to winter or autumn volatility, which historically keeps probability mass concentrated in the 25–30°C bands.

The relevant catalyst is the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecast, typically issued in early June. Traders should monitor whether a high-pressure system dominates the peninsula or whether early monsoon moisture pushes inland—conditions that would shift the daily maximum downward. Cloud cover, humidity, and wind patterns in the week preceding June 12 will provide the clearest signals for narrowing the range. No major scheduled events or policy changes affect this measurement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.