Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

A **YES** share pays if the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 22 June 2026 falls in the market’s specified Celsius range; a **NO** share pays if it does not. The market is settled off Wunderground’s daily history page for RKSI, so the relevant figure is the day’s *highest* observed temperature there, not a forecast, citywide average, or a reading from elsewhere in Seoul.[1]

For context, late June in Seoul is usually warm but not extreme by summer standards. WeatherSpark puts typical June daily highs in Seoul around 77°F to 81°F, or roughly 25°C to 27°C, with rare highs above 87°F, about 31°C.[1] That means a 0% implied chance can reflect a very specific threshold rather than an expectation of cold weather; prediction markets often trade near zero when the target range requires an unusually precise outcome. Recent reporting also shows South Korea has experienced more frequent heat extremes in recent summers, including record-breaking June and July heat, which is relevant background even if it does not determine the result here.[2][3][5]

A trader should watch the actual intraday temperature path at Incheon, because the market resolves on the *highest* reading seen before the settlement window closes, not the official daily average. The main dependency is simple: if a warm spell peaks early, the market can be decided well before the end of the day; if cloud cover, sea breezes, or rain limit the high, the outcome shifts lower. Wunderground’s station-specific history will matter more than Seoul headlines, because airport microclimate and local weather timing can differ from the broader city.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.