Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 24 June 2026 at Incheon International Airport, near Seoul, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will fall within a specific temperature range defined by the market, while a NO share means you believe it will not. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting most traders expect the temperature to be outside the target range, though this does not guarantee the outcome.

Historical data shows that Seoul’s average high in June is around 26.7°C, with daytime temperatures typically ranging from 19°C to 28°C [1][2]. Late June often sees rising humidity and the start of the monsoon season, which can suppress peak temperatures despite warmer trends earlier in the month [2][4]. Given that the market’s target range likely expects a significantly higher temperature than usual, the 0% probability aligns with typical June climate patterns where extreme heat is uncommon before midsummer.

Traders should monitor short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain could alter the day’s peak temperature [6]. Recent reports indicate heavy rain and high humidity are expected in Seoul during June 2026, which may further limit temperature spikes [7]. Since the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 24 June, any afternoon or evening weather changes after that time will not affect the result, making early-morning forecasts the most critical dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.