Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the day's peak temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays if it falls elsewhere. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Weather Underground, which logs hourly readings at the airport station throughout the day. Traders are essentially wagering on whether Seoul's early summer heat will reach a particular threshold—say, 28–30°C versus 30–32°C—rather than predicting a single number.

The current crowd probability of 0% for any given range reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that the event is impossible. Early June in Seoul typically sees temperatures between 24°C and 28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical records show considerable year-to-year variation; in 2023, 4 June peaked at 26°C, whilst in 2022 it reached 29°C. This variability explains why no single outcome commands strong conviction this far ahead.

Weather forecasts become actionable only 10–14 days before the settlement date. Traders should monitor seasonal patterns—El Niño or La Niña conditions influence East Asian early-summer temperatures—and watch for any unusual atmospheric patterns reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The airport's coastal location near Incheon means sea-surface temperatures and wind patterns from the Yellow Sea will shape the final reading more than inland Seoul conditions might suggest.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.