Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

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Market context

On 23 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this prediction market means you believe the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market; a NO share means you believe it will not. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders expect the temperature to be outside the offered range. This low probability is notable because June in Shanghai typically marks the start of the hot season, with daily highs averaging above 80°F (27°C) and regularly exceeding 30°C (86°F) during sunny periods[3][5]. Historical data shows June highs rarely drop below 69°F (21°C) but can reach 96°F (36°C), making a 0% YES probability a bold stance that the temperature will be unusually low or the range is misaligned with typical extremes[4][8].

Traders should monitor immediate weather forecasts and local climate announcements for Shanghai Pudong, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation could drastically alter the day’s peak temperature. Recent forecasts indicate daily highs in June 2026 ranging from 77°F to 96°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 79°F, providing a clear baseline for expected conditions[4]. Key dependencies include the timing of the settlement window, which ends at 12:00 UTC on 23 June, and the resolution source, Wunderground, which records the highest temperature for all times on that day[1]. While no specific news announcement has been cited for this exact date, traders should watch for real-time updates from the National Weather Service or BBC Weather, which currently show temperatures climbing steadily through late June, with Wednesday 24th forecast at 26°C and Thursday 25th at 28°C[2]. Any unexpected rain or heavy cloud cover before noon could suppress the peak temperature, potentially validating the current 0% YES probability if the range assumes higher heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.