Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will be recorded at Pudong International Airport and fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual high matches your chosen temperature bracket; a NO share pays if it falls outside that range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily highs from the airport's official station—the standard reference point for Shanghai's municipal climate data.

Shanghai's June weather sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging from 28°C to 34°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which specific bracket will resolve, or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish consensus. Comparing to recent years: June 2023 saw Shanghai peak at 32°C on the 4th, whilst June 2024 recorded 29°C on the same date. This variability—spanning a 3°C range across consecutive years—reflects the unpredictability of early-summer weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region.

The primary catalyst affecting June 2026 temperatures will be the position and intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon system, typically establishing itself by early June. Secondary factors include any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or elevate them via warm, humid air masses. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts released in May 2026, as these provide the most localised guidance for Shanghai's weather trajectory during the settlement window.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.