Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the temperature lands in a specific bracket—say, 32–34 °C—whilst a NO share pays if it lands elsewhere. The settlement will draw from historical weather data published by Weather Underground for that single day, making this a straightforward factual resolution tied to a measurable meteorological reading.

Shenzhen's early June climate is consistently warm and humid, sitting at the threshold of the region's pre-monsoon season. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs in early June typically range between 29 and 34 °C, with occasional spikes to 35 °C during heat waves. The current crowd probability of 0% assigned to the YES outcome suggests traders are either heavily concentrated on alternative temperature bands or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. This absence of conviction often reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in a particular range.

The primary variable affecting Shenzhen's temperature on that date will be the strength and timing of the South China Sea monsoon system. Tropical cyclone activity, whilst less common in June than later summer months, can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation. Long-range weather models become increasingly unreliable beyond two weeks, meaning traders will rely heavily on forecasts issued in late May. Any significant weather announcements from the China Meteorological Administration or shifts in sea-surface temperature anomalies in the preceding weeks could shift market positioning materially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.