Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome falls within the selected temperature range, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the chosen threshold.

Historical data for Wellington in late June shows daily high temperatures typically range between 50°F and 62°F (10°C to 17°C), rarely exceeding 62°F [1]. A comparable market on 18 June 2026 resolved to 14°C, aligning with seasonal averages [2]. Given that current observations show 13°C with drizzle and light rain [3], the 0% YES probability likely reflects confidence that the day will not breach a higher threshold, consistent with the cooling trend where highs decrease by 3°F through the month [1].

Traders should monitor the hourly forecast updates from BBC Weather and the National Weather Service for shifts in wind speed or precipitation intensity, which can suppress peak temperatures [3][4]. The highest daily average wind speed on 24 June is 14 mph, often associated with cooler conditions [1]. No specific weather announcements are scheduled, but real-time data from Wunderground will be the definitive resolution source [2]. With visibility high and pressure rising at 996mb, conditions appear stable for a cool, cloudy day [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.