Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual peak temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays if it falls elsewhere. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Weather Underground, which logs hourly readings at the airport station throughout the day.

Wellington's winter climate in early June typically produces daily highs between 10 and 13 degrees Celsius, though extremes are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the temperature to remain within a lower range than currently priced, or that the market structure itself has created a mismatch between available brackets and realistic outcomes. Historical June data from the airport shows that temperatures above 15°C occur occasionally but are not the norm; conversely, readings below 8°C are uncommon enough to warrant attention if atmospheric conditions shift markedly.

The key variable is the position of the Southern Hemisphere anticyclone system in early June 2026. Meteorological forecasts issued in late May will provide the first substantive signals about whether a warm air mass or cold front dominates Wellington's weather on that date. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes monthly outlooks that traders can cross-reference against historical analogues—particularly June patterns from years with similar sea-surface temperatures and pressure systems. Real-time forecast updates from the MetService, New Zealand's official weather authority, become actionable only in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.