When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI would need to make GPT-5.6 publicly available on or before 27 June 2026 ET for a YES outcome, because the market resolves on the calendar date of general availability. A YES share pays if that release happens in time; a NO share pays if it does not, including if the model is delayed, renamed, or only shown in limited previews.

The main reason the crowd is not pricing this as a near-certainty is that model launches can slip even when internal signs look strong. OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on 24 April 2026 and has already rolled it into ChatGPT, Codex, and the API, which shows the company has been shipping on a relatively fast cadence this spring.[4] Commentary published after that launch has pointed to a possible late-June GPT-5.6 release and a roughly six-week interval between flagship versions, but much of the evidence is still indirect rather than an official launch notice.[1][3]

For traders, the key catalysts are an OpenAI announcement, changes in ChatGPT release notes, API documentation updates, or signs that a named model has been promoted from an internal route to public access. OpenAI’s release notes already show that older models are being retired on a schedule, which can create room for a successor to appear, but that does not guarantee the successor lands before the market deadline.[6] Recent reporting has also said chief scientist Jakub Pachocki described GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement” and expected it in June, which is the sort of signal that can move pricing quickly if it is followed by a formal post or product update.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews When will GPT-5.6 be released? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.