United States vs. Paraguay - Total Corners

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Market context

The United States will face Paraguay in a FIFA World Cup fixture on 12 June 2026, with kick-off at 9:00 PM ET. This prediction market settles on the total number of corners awarded during the match. A YES share wins if the corner count exceeds a specified threshold (the exact number is not stated in the market description, but typically sits between 9 and 11 for competitive international fixtures). A NO share wins if corners fall at or below that threshold. The current crowd-implied probability of 2% for YES suggests traders believe corners will be relatively scarce in this encounter.

Historical data on US–Paraguay matchups and comparable World Cup group-stage games provide context for evaluating this probability. The two nations have met four times competitively; their 2016 Copa América encounter produced 7 corners, whilst their 2015 meeting yielded 9. Paraguay's defensive approach and the US's typical midfield-focused play style have historically generated moderate corner volumes. In recent World Cup tournaments, matches between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL sides have averaged 10–12 corners, suggesting the 2% probability may underestimate the likelihood of a higher corner tally.

Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries to key midfielders or wing-backs, as these positions directly influence crossing patterns and set-piece frequency. Weather conditions in the host nation and final squad confirmations—expected in late May 2026—will also shape tactical approaches. Paraguay's recent form and whether the US opts for a possession-dominant or counter-attacking setup will be critical signals in the weeks preceding the fixture.

Methodology

We track United States vs. Paraguay - Total Corners on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.