United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

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Market context

The United States will face Paraguay in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June at 9:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time—extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. A YES share pays out if the match ends in one of the explicitly listed scorelines; a NO share pays if the result falls outside those options, landing instead in "Any Other Score." The 11% crowd probability suggests traders view a specific exact score as unlikely, which aligns with how prediction markets typically price individual outcomes in football matches where dozens of possible scorelines exist.

Historically, group-stage matches between nations of differing competitive levels show wide score distributions. The United States and Paraguay have met four times in competitive fixtures since 2000, with results ranging from 3–0 American victories to 1–1 draws. Paraguay's Copa América appearances and World Cup qualification record indicate a team capable of defensive organisation, whilst the USMNT's recent Nations League and Gold Cup performances suggest attacking depth. The specificity required here—matching an exact scoreline rather than predicting a winner or goal range—naturally compresses individual outcome probabilities well below 20%.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key American attacking players and Paraguay's defensive personnel. Fixture congestion in the days before 12 June could affect team selection and tactical approach. Weather conditions at the venue and any late changes to kick-off time should be tracked, as these occasionally influence match dynamics. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 13 June, allowing minimal margin for fixture delays.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.