Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June, the Arizona Diamondbacks will travel to Cincinnati to face the Reds in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. In a prediction market, traders buy YES shares if they believe the Diamondbacks will win, or NO shares if they expect the Reds to prevail. Each share pays £1 if the outcome occurs, so the current market price reflects the collective assessment of win probability. The 0% crowd-implied probability shown here suggests traders have assigned virtually no chance to a Diamondbacks victory, though this extreme reading warrants scrutiny against actual team form and matchup details.

The Diamondbacks finished the 2023 season with a 84–78 record and reached the World Series, demonstrating competitive depth. The Reds, by contrast, posted a 82–80 mark and missed the playoffs. Historical head-to-head records between these franchises show relatively balanced competition, though recent season-to-date performance and injury status will shape the specific game outcome. A 0% probability for Arizona suggests either significant roster disruption, a critical pitcher unavailability, or an extreme recency bias in market pricing that may not reflect underlying fundamentals.

Traders should monitor roster announcements and starting pitcher confirmations in the days before 12 June. Injuries to key position players or the Diamondbacks' designated starter could justify depressed odds, whilst a healthy lineup facing a Reds pitcher in poor form would signal mispricing. Weather conditions at Great American Ball Park and recent offensive trends for both teams merit attention. The settlement window closes on 19 June at 23:15 UTC, allowing time for any postponement or make-up game to be completed before final resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.