Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June, the Detroit Tigers will travel to Cleveland to face the Guardians in an MLB regular-season fixture. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet on the Tigers winning; a NO share bets on a Guardians victory. The current crowd-implied probability of 66% for a Tigers win reflects market participants' collective assessment of the matchup, though the settlement window extends to 19 June to account for any postponements.

The Tigers and Guardians have competed in the AL Central for decades, though recent competitive balance has shifted considerably. Cleveland won the division in 2022 and reached the World Series, whilst Detroit has rebuilt substantially since 2019. Head-to-head records and divisional standing matter less in single-game markets than starting pitching matchups and current form. The 66% probability suggests the market views Detroit as a clear favourite, likely reflecting either a pitching advantage or recent performance metrics favouring the Tigers.

Traders should monitor roster updates and weather forecasts in the days before the fixture, as injuries to key pitchers or position players can shift probabilities sharply. Cleveland's pitching depth and Detroit's recent offensive output will be critical inputs. The settlement mechanism is straightforward: official MLB final statistics determine the outcome, with postponements keeping the market open and cancellations or ties resolving 50-50. Any announcement of starting pitchers typically occurs 24 hours before game time and often triggers significant probability shifts in prediction markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.