New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the New York Yankees will travel to Toronto to face the Blue Jays in a regular-season MLB matchup. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the Yankees win; a NO share bets on a Toronto victory. The settlement window extends to 19 June, allowing for postponements or rescheduling without early closure. Should the game be cancelled without a make-up fixture or end in a tie—extraordinarily rare in baseball—the market resolves 50-50, splitting the pool equally between both sides.

The 0% YES probability reflects either a technical display issue or an absence of trading activity at the time of snapshot. Historically, regular-season matchups between these division rivals show Yankees victories occurring in roughly 52–54% of encounters over the past decade, though home-field advantage in Toronto typically narrows that margin. Recent seasons have seen competitive contests, with neither team establishing dominance sufficient to justify extreme probability skews in individual games.

Traders should monitor roster updates and injury reports in the days preceding the fixture, particularly regarding starting pitchers and key position players. Weather conditions at Rogers Centre—notably humidity and wind patterns affecting fly balls—can influence run-scoring expectations. Any last-minute schedule changes or weather delays announced by MLB would trigger postponement protocols, keeping the market open beyond the original date. Official final statistics from MLB's records serve as the authoritative resolution source.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.