Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Market context

The real-world event is the **highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport** on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and taken from the Wunderground history page for that station. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the event lands in the specified temperature range, while a **NO** share pays if it does not, so the price is the crowd’s rough view of where the day’s maximum will finish by the settlement cutoff.

For context, late June in Shanghai is already in the city’s hot season. WeatherSpark says average daily highs at Pudong in June rise from about 77°F to 83°F, with readings rarely below 69°F or above 92°F, which places the market in a range where the outcome is usually shaped more by humidity, cloud cover and rainfall than by seasonal warmth alone.[1] NOAA’s time-series page for ZSPD shows the kind of intraday path traders watch, with temperatures typically climbing through the day towards the afternoon peak rather than resetting early.[2]

A trader would mainly watch the local forecast, especially whether rain or thunderstorms arrive before the afternoon maximum. AccuWeather’s June forecast for Pudong points to highs around the upper 70s to low 90s Fahrenheit on nearby days, and flags showers or thunderstorms around 22 June, which can cap the day’s peak if they move in early.[6] Because the market resolves to the airport station rather than central Shanghai, small forecast shifts in timing and intensity matter more than the citywide headline temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.