Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin is currently serving as Russia’s president, and this market pays **Yes** if he stops holding that office for any period before the end of the settlement window, including if a resignation or removal is announced before then.[1][3] For a newcomer, a **Yes share** is a bet that the event happens; a **No share** is a bet that it does not. With the crowd-implied probability at 1%, the market is saying an exit by 30 June is seen as very unlikely, not impossible.

That low price fits Putin’s unusually durable record in office. Britannica and the BBC both describe him as president from 1999 to 2008 and again from 2012 to the present, with the BBC noting he is now into his fifth term and that there is little visible domestic opposition capable of forcing him out.[1][3] Comparable markets on long-serving leaders usually stay depressed until there is a concrete trigger, because most changes of power come from formal announcements, constitutional transitions, severe health shocks, elite splits, or a sudden security crisis rather than routine politics.

The main catalysts to watch are any Kremlin statement on resignation, succession, or incapacity, plus official appearances and schedule changes that might indicate a transfer of authority. Under the market rules, an announcement alone can be enough to settle **Yes** even if the departure takes effect later, so traders will pay close attention to state media, presidential decrees, and any abrupt absence from public events. Recent reporting from the BBC underlines the broader backdrop: Putin remains in control and has shown no public sign of stepping aside, which is why the market sits at the far end of the probability range.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.